This year, the competition doesn't look as tough for the Gators with a road game at LSU being the toughest weekend on the schedule, but all it takes is one stumble sometimes. I think this may be one of those years. I am going to go against the considerable tide and I'll leave Florida out of the title game. Foolish? Probably, but I am doing it anyway. Much stranger things have happened. I hope that one of LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, the SEC West Champ, or a rebounding Florida State will be able to tame that Gator. I have nothing against Florida, I just want some new blood in the title game.
So, who does that leave? Don't stray outside of the SEC. Alabama? They have a steady Virginia Tech and a fiesty Ole Miss on the road, a home date with LSU, and a trip to Auburn. That's a lot of chances to stumble, and I think they will stumble somewhere along the way. The Crimson Tide can play down to their opponents as evidenced by a few squeakers last year (home wins by 3 and 4 points against Kentucky and Ole Miss, an OT win over LSU and an embarassingly close 2 TD win over Tulane (!?) at home). They went undefeated until the SEC title game loss to Florida. Teams don't go undefeated in back to back seasons, they just don't. It is a tremendous feat to do it once, but to do it again with a rebuilding offensive line, it's just too much to ask.
Georgia then? They have a full slate in the SEC East plus LSU and an opener at Oklahoma State. Their tangle with Florida is in the Swamp. They won't run that table, not with a new QB at the helm. He is a talent ready to pop, but that is the weight of the college football world he would be feeling as he takes the field on Halloween against the big orange and blue machine of Urban Meyer. Boo!
So....LSU? They have the skins on the wall, they will be rebounding from an off season. They seemed to lose their spirit after an emotional loss to Alabama as they stumbled and bumbled their way through the fog at the end of their schedule. Expectations have been lowered by some, but they are still a Les Miles team and they are only two years removed from hoisting the national championship trophy, so schools like Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi know better to take them lightly. The Tigers will win the lion's share of games on their schedule, but this will not be another chance to prowl into the National Championship game on January 7th.
Give up? How about an up and coming program with a few skins last year slaying big boys Florida and Texas Tech. They kicked it into gear in the second half in a close loss to Alambama, but after that they steamrolled their way through the schedule and a Cotton Bowl win in convincing fashion. They have a couple of key ingredients from last year (confidence, a teeth-rattling defense that can pressure the ball, and the ability to look the best in the country in the eye without blinking) that, if they can continue to hit on all cylinders this season, they could find themselves in an SEC title game for the first time since winning the conference in 1963. If they can pull of a win there, it could be on to Pasadena for a shot at a national title for the first time in almost half a century. Before you scoffers scoff, check out their schedule. It sets up nicely for an SEC school. They have 4 early tune-ups before the Crimson Tide comes to town, and you better believe that the Rebels have revenge on their minds. If they can clear that considerable hurdle, they have Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee before squaring off against LSU in what could be the last hurdle for them before the SEC title game. Remember, Ole Miss beat LSU in Baton Rogue and pushed the Tide to the limit in Tuscaloosa last year, so two wins or a split is not out of the question.
Yes, they would likely have to play out of their minds to beat Florida, but last year they did it. They would be mighty big underdogs, but I think that is exactly where they would want to be going into the game. Ole Miss starts the year as #10 in the USA Today poll, so if they take care of business, they won't have many teams to leapfrog to get to the top.
So who is a worthy foe for the Rebels in the national title game? Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will all spoil the party for each other. I'm not convinced that any of them will emerge from the Big XII race unscathed, but Texas has the best chance of the three. They have the weakest non-conference schedule of the three teams by far, but I'm not sure they can take care of business against Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State in Stillwater on three consecutive Saturdays. USC? They play in an improving Pac 10 with Oregon and Oregon State gunning for the Trojans. Add to that an early road date for a new QB at Ohio State and a mid-season visit to South Bend against a Fighting Irish team fighting for their coach's job, and this may not be the best USC season we have seen this decade. I look for Ohio State to spoil the party early which will give Southern Cal plenty of time to cliumb back up the rankings, but there will be one hurdle they can't overcome.
What about the Buckeyes? They have been there before and they bring a boatload of talent to the table. If they can beat USC, Ohio State can likely walk through the math-challenged Big 10 until Novemeber 7 when they travel to Happy Valley for what may be their only loss for the year. The Nittany Lions of Penn State have only two ranked teams on their slate and they play both Iowa and Ohio State in Pennsylvannia. Compared to the other teams discussed, that is a cake walk. Starting from the #8 spot in the USA Today poll, they can watch the teams ahead of
them fall by the wayside as they hold server week after week. When the dust clears and most other top teams are prepping for a conference title game, Penn State can kick their feet up, polish their Big 10 crown, and wait to see who they will face in the Rose Bowl (the stadium, not the game) on January 7th. Penn State has the best shot at an undefeated season of any of the major teams this year, inlcuding Florida.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention Virginia Tech. Somehow, they get left out of the discussion time and time again. Virginia Tech deserves better. They have been the steady Eddie of the Division I schools. People forget that Frank Beamer has lead the Hokies to 4 BCS bowls since 2000. They have the misfortune of playing slightly better teams as they escape with narrow losses in most of those games. They lost the national championship to undefeated Florida State in the Sugar Bowl in 2000 after leading through three quarters. The Hokies' furious 4th quarter comeback against an undefeated Auburn team who felt burned by the BCS system fell just short as they lost the 2005 Sugar Bowl 16-13. In 2008, they fell 3 points shy of Kansas (11-1) in the Orange Bowl, before beating Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl last year. With as much respect as I have for the defensive-minded Hokie squad, Alabama, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and even Boston College provide too many potholes on the way to a national title.
So there you have it. I am boldly going where no man or woman outside of State College, PA or Oxford, MS dares to go. My bold prediction is an Ole Miss / Penn State natioanl title game on January 7, 2010. It would be great to see two schools about 1000 miles apart make the trek to California to duke it out for the top spot in the country. That would really stoke the BCS reform fires, but both teams have a veray reasonable path to get there. Check back in about 4 months and we'll see who is still standing.
